Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Stop panicking over bad data

Sit, down, pour a bourbon, light a cigar, and indulge me in a mental exercise.

In this exercise, postulate that we have a population of a thousand people.

In this population, a disease gets loose -- we'll call it "Albino Brain Chiggers" -- and one hundred people wind up in the hospital. Of the hundred in hospital, two of them die.

That's a 2% mortality rate, and is fairly significant

However, turns out that a hundred other people had Albino Brain Chiggers, but it was a mild case that looked a lot like the usual seasonal respiratory illness, and they did what they always do: drank water, took Motrin, changed their socks, and drove on.

Since they didn't bother getting medical attention, their stats don't get counted, but they should: because it means that 200 people had ABC, but only two died -- which is a mortality rate of 1%.

Hmm.


Take a sip, have a puff.

Now, let's go one further. L
et us postulate that half of all Albino Brain Chigger cases are "asymptomatic", that is, the folks that have it never know. They continue about their lives, never getting sick, and, thus ... never seeking medical attention. And never getting tested.

Half means that actually 400 people had ABC. And only two died.


That's ... let me get my shoes off ...

... A 0.5% mortality rate.

The data regarding the Wuhan Virus you are currently getting is corrupted. Badly.

It's corrupted because we had to develop a test for this thing, the numbers of tests are still kind of limited, and because of that we're only testing sick people. We're not testing the mild cases that just drive on, and we're damned well not testing the asymptomatic cases.

It's also corrupted because -- let's face it: Anybody who trusts any information from the Chinese Government, or any socialist government for that matter, should have their Licence To Adult taken away.


And since this whole mess started in China, a whole bunch of people who ought to know better are still using mortality numbers provided by the Chinese Government.

(Willing to bet that "Death by COVID-19" has overtaken "Death by Suicide" amongst wide swaths of Chinese dissidents, wrong-thinkers, political prisoners, and other folks deemed "undesirable" by the Chinese government.)

Be that as it may, the Chinese government can, will, and has lied to the rest of the world about things much less important than the Wuhan Virus.

Corruption also comes from tests with false positives, false negatives, people who still think "over-reacting is the best way to proceed" if they're in doubt; and myriad uncountable other issues in the complicated problem that is a new illness.


Not to mention that at least one non-Chinese country is skewing the statistics regarding what"Death by COVID-19" actually is (I'm looking at you, Italy) and the plain and simple fact that not only do the testing protocols vary from country-to-country, they frequently vary between health systems in a single country.

Too long; didn't read:

Stop panicking over the mortality percentage. It's artificially elevated, and will only come down as testing improves.

Comments closed, because quite frankly the pearl-clutching is grating my nerves something fierce.

LawDog

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Italy

By nature and by training I look for deviations from baselines, so when people started waving Italy under my nose and making boogeyman noises anytime anyone mentioned the Wuhan Virus vis a vis the United States, the massive deviation from baseline in the country's mortality rate caught my attention.

So, I started digging around.

First, did you know that the anti-vaxxer movement is apparently very significant in the Italian political scene?


How The Anti-Vaxxers Are Winning In Italy (Sep 2018)

According to that article, 85% of Italian children receive the first shot in the measles series, and only 83% receive the second.

"
To stop transmission of infections, 93-95 per cent of the population should be immunised, the herd immunity threshold. But in 2015, Italy’s paediatric measles vaccination rate was around 85 per cent for the first dose and 83 per cent for the second dose."

'Goodness, Self,' I thought, 'I wonder how that tracks with vaccines OTHER than measles?'

Actually, turns out it tracks pretty well.

Coverage Rate of Flu Vaccination In Italy (Jan 2020)

"
This statistic illustrates the coverage rate of flu vaccination in Italy from 2006 to 2018. Overall, the share of individuals getting vaccinated against flu has decreased over the period considered, reaching the lowest level during the season 2014-15 (13.6 percent). However, from 2014 onwards, the share of people getting vaccinated against flu steadily increased, reaching 15.3 percent during the flu season 2017-2018."

Honestly, that one made me blink, so I checked a little further.

Association Between Vaccination Coverage Decline ... (Aug 2018)

That one is depressing as hell to read, but it tracks true with the first.

How does no-one getting bloody vaccinated for sodding anything affect things in Italy?  Well, it turns out that if you get a respiratory illness rolling, Italians are going to die in job lots.

Investigating The Impact Of Influenza On Excess Mortality ... (Nov 2019)

"
The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly. However children less than 5 years old also reported a relevant influenza attributable excess death rate in the 2014/15 and 2016/17 seasons (1.05/100,000 and 1.54/100,000 respectively)."

In the flu epidemic of 2014-2015, 20,258 Italians died. In the epidemic of 2016-2017 it was even worse, at 24,981.

But wait! There's more!

Keeping in mind that apparently the Italians don't necessarily believe in inoculations (see above). I'm pretty sure that the dismal numbers for measles vaccines and flu vaccines hold true across the spectrum, but -- quite frankly -- the fact that Italy has a worse vaccine coverage than sodding Equatorial Africa depressed me too much to go looking further.

So, bearing in mind that the Italian anti-vaxxer movement seems to be riding that entire peninsula like a rented mule, look what we have here:

Why Have So Many Coronavirus Patients Died In Italy? (Mar 2020)

"
 On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says"

What that means is that if you die in an Italian hospital of the measles (that you were never inoculated for), but the autopsy shows the Wuhan Virus, you get entered as a COVID-19 death.

You can be asymptomatic for COVID-19, and die of a heart attack because you ate nothing but baked brie for 58 years, and it's a coronavirus death.

Didn't get a pneumonia shot, and (bloody surprise!) die of pneumonia, but they find coronavirus? It's a coronavirus death.

IN A COUNTRY THAT DOESN'T IMMUNIZE EVERYONE FOR SURVIVABLE SODDING DISEASES!

As of my writing this, 5,000 Italians have died. That is a tragedy.

But they died because the anti-vaxxers have talked them out of getting flu shots; have dissuaded them from taking pneumonia inoculations; from giving their kids measles vaccine, and all of the other pokes in the arm that medical science in the First World spent decades developing.

5,000 Italians have died, but a lot of them died from the dumb. The coronavirus just carried the bullets for a while.

Stop waving Italy under my nose as an example of what's coming for the United States. We're not that stupid. Yet.

Comments are closed, because I don't feel like dealing with hysteria and hyperventilation.
 


LawDog

Saturday, September 14, 2019

About time.

For years, the Left has been condescendingly saying, "No-one wants to take your guns."

The "You paranoid, cousin-humping redneck" was (usually) unsaid.

This, despite the fact that there are well-documented instances of Leftist politicians saying that exact thing -- Dianne Feinstein anyone? 

However most of the instances were before the rise of the Internet, and thusly do not exist as far as modern society is concerned.

Thankfully, Robert Francis O'Rourke went ahead and admitted on National TeeVee as to what we've always known about the Left in America -- yes they do, as a matter of fact, want to take our guns.

The thing you need to take away from this video clip is not that a Democratic candidate for the highest office in the land is confessing that the Democrats really do want to confiscate your guns.

That will be spun by the Main Stream Media and the slick Democratic Party PR machine (but I repeat myself) as the desperate flailings of a fringe, no-chance candidate.

No, the take-away you need to notice is the cheering, whistling applause of the Democratic crowd.

When Nancy Pelosi gets on CNN and tries soothing the American public with talk about how Robert Francis O'Rourke is desperate for relevance in the race, and he was just trying radical statements that aren't really supported by the rest of the Democrats ...

... listen to the cheering of that Democratic crowd in the audience when Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke declares his intent to take our guns away.


Listen to the soul of the Democratic voter expressed in enthusiastic applause.


It's not just Robert Francis O'Rourke. It's the rotten core of the Leftist party.


Remember that this election season.


Remember the applause.




LawDog

Friday, September 06, 2019

Mark Twain once said:

"I have never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure."

Robert Mugabe is dead.


Sod that quote for a game of soldiers.

Robert Mugabe,

You were a degenerate, fathered by a rabid cane-rat upon a syphilitic warthog; whose only genuine claim to fame is not having the common decency to catch a bullet with your face in 1975.

You took the gukurahundi, and you gave the rain blades, and hate, and fire, then you set it loose in Matebele-land. 80 000 Ndebele butchered, mostly unarmed civilians.

I hope the screams of the tortured, the wails of the dying, and the keening of the grieving families strips the flesh from your ears.

You whispered to that murderous bastard in Pyongyang, and gave him rapists, and murderers, and oath-breakers, and he sent back the Fifth Brigade, whom you set against your opponents, and journalists, and men of peace. How many thousands did the 5th drop down the mineshafts? How many were lucky to be dead before they hit bottom?

You cursed them to remain, mourned, but un-buried by their kin. I hope they drag your screaming soul into the bottomless dark.

You sent flame-throwers and guns to Chikurubi, and hours later one thousand, two hundred prisoners were slaughtered. For what?

I hope you spend eternity choking on oily smoke.


You took the bread-basket of Africa, and you starved its people -- hundreds of thousands of them -- for your own gain. Then you set bulldozers against the slums you created to "Move the rubbish", grinding the shanties and the starving under the treads.

You were less than an animal, you leprous buffoon. Your clan should cut off their genitals for the shame of having borne you, you shadowless thug.


The only grave you deserve is a septic tank, and the only respect due your remains is to be dragged out of the feculent excreta by starving hyenas years in the future, to have your empty skull repeatedly sexually violated by diseased jackals.

Burn in hell, you miserable, oath-breaking, murderous, sack of offal. I hope the dead you created pound pineapples up your arse for the rest of time.

LawDog

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

An open letter to Representative Crenshaw

Dear Representative Crenshaw,

I'd like to take a moment of your time to talk to you about your "Red Flag Law" proposition; specifically about two concerns that I, and every other gun owner in these United States has.

The first is that while I appreciate your assurances that there will be "robust due process protections", I'm going to respectfully opine that you are incorrect.  There will be no "robust protection" of due process for gun owners, no matter what you believe.

The reasons are the same reasons that there are no "robust protections" for those persons who are the subject of Emergency Protection Orders.

You see, Representative Crenshaw, "robust protections" means nothing more than a bucket of warm rodent expectorant if the police, the District Attorneys, and the judges decide it doesn't.

If you have sanctions against malicious filing of a Red Flag order, what good are they if the police refuse to investigate allegations of misuse?  And they will.  Oh, if they're called on the carpet about the lack of investigations, they'll look sorrowful and tell you that they just don't have the manpower for that sort of thing.

You can't look me in the face and tell me that the San Francisco Police Department is going to do a damned thing about those damned dirty gun-owners getting screwed over by false Red Flag orders.

Where is the "robust protection of due process" if the police aren't sanctioned for refusing to investigate?

If you have sanctions against misuse of Red Flag orders, what good are they if the District Attorneys refuse to accept a case of misuse of Red Flag "In The Interests Of Justice"?

And they will.  Their explanation will be that they're worried that prosecuting malicious Red Flag cases might deter someone from a legitimate filing, an explanation they'll give with a pious look upon their face.

You can't guarantee the gun owners of this nation that the Seattle District Attorney is going to think that bad Red Flag orders aren't just something those barbarous gun-owners just have to endure.

So where is the "robust protection" if the DAs aren't sanctioned for refusing to accept cases involving malicious use of the Red Flag law?

When the judges refuse to dismiss fraudulent Red Flag cases from the bench -- again, "In The Interests Of Justice" -- where is the "robust protection of due process"?

You can't tell me with a straight face that there's a judge in Boston, or Chicago, or New York City that gives a damn if gun-owners get screwed over by an unlawful Red Flag order.

And your answer cannot be:  "I don't know". This is your dead albatross, Representative. "I don't know" is an unacceptable answer. You'd better figure it out right the hell now.

Second is Mission Creep.

Let us postulate that you get a Red Flag Law passed that does everything you promise it will.

Doubtful, but let's imagine this.

So, what happens next Session when the gun-grabbers find a Law That Absolutely Must Be Passed, and stick an extra line in there about expanding your Red Flag Law?  

Now what?

You have a bill that no congressman in their right minds is going to vote against ... and it expands your Red Flag law to allow Internet acquaintances to petition for a Red Flag order.

For better or worse this is your dead albatross, Congressman -- what are you going to do when (not if) gun-grabbers start "fixing" your Red Flag Law by adding amendments and addendums into "Can't Not Pass" bills?

"I don't know" is not an acceptable answer, Representative Crenshaw.  Figure it out now.

I sincerely believe that you are trying your best in a sticky political situation, but I think your Red Flag Law is going to wind up biting a whole bunch of people in the arse. 

I don't really care if it torpedoes your career, but I do care that your misguided desire to "Do Something" is going to bite a lot of American gun owners in the butt.

I doubt if you'll ever see this, but if you do, I hope you at least think about the issues I have brought up in this letter.

Cordially,

LawDog

Friday, August 16, 2019

Really? You're going with that?


Looks like someone decided to whip out the old bushwa about how we don't need our AR15s because the Fed.Gov will just genocide us all.


Yes, that's the core of that argument. No, I'm not linking to articles threatening to use the military to seize our guns, because I don't want to get intellectual wank-goo all over my blog.

However, let us delve into the depths of history! You know, that thing that if one doesn't learn from, one is doomed to repeat.

Here is Afghanistan. Let us ask every technologically-superior country to invade that pile of suck and fail since Alexander:

Great Britain 1839 to 1842?  Oops. There's a reason that little dust-up was called "The Disaster in Afghanistan."  Great Britain, arguably the most technologically-advanced country in the world at the time, wandered into that pile of rocks, and misery, and promptly got the whey kicked out of them by the locals.


The United Soviet Socialist Republic 1979 to 1989?  Arguably one of the two top dogs militarily at the time, with air assault capability, helicopter gunships, and the free use of chemical weapons. Result?  The Soviets crawled back across the border, licking their wounds.

The United States 2001 to well ... now? That would be the Aircraft Carriers and Predator drones mentioned in the argument mentioned above. For the results, just ask your local media pundit, or Democrat congress-critter. They'll tell you not only have we lost, we need to pull out before we get our teeth kicked in any worse.

Vietnam?  French occupation or ours? Doesn't matter, really, neither France nor us -- both far militarily-advanced than the Vietnamese rice farmers -- came out of that one winners.  Just ask the Main Stream Media.


How about Somalia in the 1990s. President Clinton sent the most technologically-advanced military -- and the best war-fighters of the best -- into that little hell-hole.  How'd that work out?

All of these have something in common:  They were local insurgencies against big, high-tech armies.

And if you think the Afghans, the Viet Cong, and the Somali warlords were good guerrilla fighters, you haven't seen what the United States would be like.

Folks, I'm here to tell you, there is no country on this little green dirtball that will go insurgent faster than the United States.

And if you take nothing else from this, understand that there are no people on this world, there are no people in all of recorded history, as good at insurgency as the Americans.

Hell, we exist today because we took on the mightiest, most technologically advanced Empire in the World with the best military the world had seen at that time with a bunch of pissed-off insurgent farmers.

And we kicked Britain's arse right off the beach.

Our DNA is rebellious outlaws that were kicked out of the mother country because Great Britain couldn't deal with us. We took the hit-and-run warfare of the Native Americans, and we made it our own.  WE LIKE TO FIGHT.

On top of that we have schools that any person of good character can go to and get training from our best war fighters.  If we wish, we can get better training than that provided to our own military.

I have spent modest money to go to classes to learn to shoot distances far in excess of anything capable by 99% of our military.  I have taken classes on my own dime -- because it was fun --to learn how to clear houses better than the average infantry grunt.

We shoot 3-Gun, IPSC, IDPA, and a hundred other gun games ... BECAUSE IT IS FUN.


The entire US military strength -- right now -- is about 1.4 million bodies. That's not just Combat Arms, that's everyone.  Add in another 900,000 Reserves.

Texas -- by itself -- had one million hunters out last year. That's one State with damned near as many shooters as the entire US military.


16 million hunters took the field though-out the United States in 2018.  Hunters alone outnumber the entire US military by over three to one. 

And there are a damned sight more gun owners than there are hunters.

You want to see an insurgency that would make the Hindu Kush jealous? 


You want to hear the ghosts of empires whisper, "That was dumb"?

Listen to the idiots who think they'll just have the military take our guns.

LawDog

Support starving authors!

Semi-foster brother, occasional bandit, and life-long buddy Tole has dipped his toe into the world of self-publishing:

It's his first time -- be gentle.

Go!  Read!


LawDog

Thursday, August 15, 2019

Free Pineland!

Several times a year 15 counties in southern North Carolina turn into the People's Republic of Pineland, a country friendly to the US that has been overthrown by Soviet-style and -backed (used to be) coup.

Special Forces candidates are then inserted into Pineland where they link up with guerilla elements (US Army typists, mechanics, and other non-SF folks led by retired SF cadre), who are attempting to overthrow the unlawful current government.

Local civilians (usually ROTC kiddies, but with a good sprinkling of locals, including the odd Boy Scout Troop) get in on the action, playing Pineland civilians, CIA agents, State Department types, foreign nationals, media and the like.


Select elements of the 82nd provide the military arm of the opposition government, and hunt the candidates.

The Special Forces candidates will use all of their training to train, lead, and teach the Pineland Resistance Forces to restore the government -- just as they would in a real operation. Boloing this exercise means you fail out of the SF course.

At the National Training Center, OPFOR (OPposition FORces) are the "bad guys" that our military trains against in real time, to develop the realistic skills to adapt against an ever-changing human opponent.

A good part of the time OPFOR hails from the fictional Democratic People's Republic of Krasnovia, loosely based on Soviet tactics, procedures and weapons.

About a year ago, Larry Correia was on Facebook discussing fictional worlds with another writer. During this discussion, Larry made an off-hand joke about Pinelanders, goats, waffles, Krasnovia, sandwiches and "accidental genocide".


Fast forward a year, and a Facebook bot decided that the joke Larry made a year ago violated ...  something ... and tossed him into Facebook Gulag for 24 hours.

When his family, friends, and fans found out about this over at the Monster Hunter fan page on Facebook, they went nuts, and quickly divided into Krasnovian boot-licking pig-dogs sympathisers, and Pineland patriots.  And then proceeded to pun, mock, call for Larry's release, cock a snook at Facebook, and generally have a good old time.

So, if you're a little confused today about all the references to Pineland and Krasnovia, I hope this helps.


The sandwich, waffle, and goat references ... you're on your own.

Free Pineland!

LawDog

Saturday, August 10, 2019

Cock-Up Before Conspiracy

Let's unclench our fourth points of contact here.

Yes, Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide.  No, no one had him whacked.


If someone had wanted him killed, the best, simplest, easiest, and most effective way to do it is to slip $500 into Mookie's commissary account.  Mookie stabs Epstein in the shower, or the chow line, or church, and Epstein is just one more child molester who got whacked in jail.

Nobody would have given a damn.

Given the Tonight Show-esque quality of the jokes regarding the Clintons grieving over Epstein's "imminent suicide", actually trying to fake a suicide that everyone is joking about is pretty damned dumb.


Segregation has too many cameras. No-one is going to sneak into a segregation cell and hang the occupant. It doesn't happen. It takes too long, and people -- even chomos -- fight back.

If one of those cameras all of a sudden doesn't have footage from the time of the death, then the control room operator winds up in front of Internal Affairs, looking at having a metaphorical pineapple shoved up a very intimate place until he sings.

No, what happened here was a simple case of detention staff getting careless and letting a determined man -- Epstein was looking at a very short, very brutal lifespan in prison -- get ahold of something which allowed him to both check-out ahead of the rapes and the inevitable shanking, and to go out on his own terms ... which was the only real power left to the man.


Cock-up, not conspiracy.

LawDog

Thursday, August 08, 2019

Support starving authors!


Friend Peter Grant has a new book out:



You should probably go look at it.

LawDog

Wednesday, August 07, 2019

You know what I find ...

... To be morbidly amusing?

The same people who last week were screeching about the government having concentration camps now want me to give my AR15s to that same government.

The same people who last month were hyperventilating about the government slaughtering black people now expect me to surrender my guns to that same government.


The same people who last year were setting stuff on fire and yipping about the government rounding up the gays and Muslims for liquidation now think it's a good idea for me to just hand over my rifles to that same government.

You chuckleheads need to make up your damned minds.

LawDog